Global Cooling May now be Upon Us

http://robertd.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/some-global-cooling-updates/

Cashmere Goats are Dying by Ethel C. Fenig (see above link for complete story)

Have you noticed the absence of Al Gore (global-warming-the-sky-is-falling) in light of the unusually harsh winter across the planet? Why he wasn’t even at the Academy Awards!

Meanwhile cashmere goats, and their herders, do wish Al Gore would open his mouth and spew forth some hot air about the perils of global warming instead of hiding under the cover of climate change.

At least 600 rare Himalayan goats — famed for their pashmina wool, also known as cashmere — have died and thousands face starvation after their desert habitat was blanketed with snow during the region’s worst snowfall in three decades, authorities said Thursday. Over 100,000 cashmere goats have faced starvation as winter stocks of fodder ran out after heavy snow covered pastures in the remote Ladakh region near the border with China last month.

The PETA people have been unusually silent also. From American Thinker

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/

Snowfall Records Being Broken in New England

by Noel Sheppard February 28, 2008 - 10:12 ET

(Photo of snow on roof in Vermont)

Remember all those articles last year about how ski resorts were going to go bankrupt, and that folks with vacation homes near such areas were going to take a bath as global warming significantly reduced snowfall levels? Well, ski enthusiasts and investors around the country should rest assured that this media hype was just as accurate as all those hurricane forecasts in 2006 and 2007. In fact, much as what has occurred across the northern US this year, parts of New England have experienced more snow than ever in history as reported by USA Today late Wednesday evening. Read the rest from NewsBusters

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This La Nina Likely to Have Legs - February 28, 2008

As I mentioned in my post here about one of the satellite data sets (RSS) that showed a marked cooling globally in 2008, La Nina and PDO seem to be drivers of this change. Here is Joe D’Aleo’s take on it below. - Anthony

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM ICECAP

Evidence is growing this La Nina will be a longer term event. Most similar important La Ninas are often multi year events (1949-1951,1954-1956, 1961-63, 1970-1972, 1973-1976, 1998-2001). Though the easternmost Pacific near South America has warmed at the surface as the seasonal weakening of the tropical easterlies led to weakened upwelling, it is still cold beneath. Below you can see the latest depth-section of ocean temperatures (top) and anomalies (bottom). Temperature are in degree Celsius. Note the large reservoir of subsurface anomalously cold water (up to 4 degrees C) in the eastern tropical Pacific at 50 to 100 meters.

For the rest of the original article goto
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/this-la-nina-likely-to-have-legs/

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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Stop The Presses......What We Have Now Is Global Cooling

Call it what you will, global cooling, or "The Al Gore Effect". No you can not have your money back on all those carbon credits you just bought. What about all these efforts to stop global warming, the UN's IPCC, the Kyoto Treaty, what are we going to do?

Peter

Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM

World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year. (See graph at website link below)

Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming. Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.

For the graph of world temperatures and the rest of the story goto:
http://petesplace-peter.blogspot.com/2008/02/stop-presseswhat-we-have-now-is-global.html

A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out nearly all the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.

No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Verdict: All Four Major Global Temperature Tracking Outlets Release Updated Data

"For quite some time now I have been openly harping on global "warming" hysterics. Throughout my debates I have maintained that within the next 20 (or some odd) years, we will begin to see signs of the next global climate cycle - a cycle that will bring global "cooling".

It appears I was wrong.

Apparently we won't have to wait that long.

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.

No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

To read the complete article and comments goto:
http://theconservativemanifesto.blogspot.com/2008/02/verdict-all-four-major-global.html

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February 29, 2008 7:53 AM - Comment by jovial_cynic said...

And in related news: bacteria can cause rain and snow.

Check on: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174801.htm

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February 29, 2008 7:53 AM - Comment by HoJo...

I have quite a bit of information about new energy systems that could replace our use of fossil fuels and thus stop new carbon dioxide emissions. This would silence the global warming crowd complaining about CO2 emissions. Far more important, it would bring back home all those billions now going to nations who plot our destruction.

Check out these sites on the web.

http://hjgulfstream.blogspot.com/

http://glowarmacs.blogspot.com/

Simplifying extremely complex systems

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This is in response to the article,

Heavy footprint weighs down U.S. empire

by Paul Hanley, The StarPhoenix spnews@sp.canwest.com
Published: Tuesday, January 29, 2008

His premise is stated in the first paragraph of the article. "Is the decline of the status of the United States a result of its heavy ecological footprint? A strong argument can be made that the fading of the American empire is fundamentally an environmental issue." To his comments about "the fading of the American empire" That remined me of a quote from Mark Twain, "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

Mr. Hanley's copyrighted article can be read at

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/arts/story.html?id=82235c7e-e146-4c12-af09-f6c3458cd676

This BLOG is in response to Paul Hanley’s article.

The article has an interesting concept and conclusion that is a typically simplistic identification of a narrow range cause of an extremely complex system. Mostly these types of conclusions tend to promote the opinion and/or agenda of the creator. This is not intended as a condemnation, but is merely an observation by one who tends to look for the complexities in systems like the Roman Empire, the United States or even global climate. One could see the similarities of destructive effects in such factors as: the growth of government of Rome and the US and the associated increasing cost, the use of human energy, and the consumption of effort that growth requires.

Another example from another source comes from far back in history. When the 13 colonies were still part of England, Professor Alexander Tyler, a Scottish historian, wrote about the fall of the Athenian democracy over 2000 years earlier.

“A democracy can not exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves money from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates promising them the most money from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship.”

This does not apply as closely to a representative republic, but our republic is rapidly being eroded by those who see a democracy as being more in their own best interests than a republic. This too could be an equally accurate explanation for the fall of Rome and the future of America. There are doubtless many other applicable reasons with possible equal or greater effects. Jared Diamond covers many, natural and man made in his books, Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel.

I shall try to explain the type of problems complex systems pose for those who would try to understand them by describing one such system I have been studying. For more than ten years I have been working on answers to a very complex system or more accurately group of systems related to our use of energy. These include: energy systems we have in place, where they are headed and practical solutions to the constantly changing energy requirements and uses in the world. My book, A Convenient Solution, does not provide a single solution but it does describe many of the systems now in use, possible future systems, their practicality and how they can be implemented. I think most people would be surprised at the number and variety of energy systems in use, soon to be in use and those that could be in use in the near future. All of these systems from power plants and distribution systems to vehicles and power tools are available with existing technology. Many new concepts are already available and more are coming in the very near future. Most are being developed by independent entrepreneurs, not government. The positive effects on our economy, our environment and the well being of planet earth could be enormous.

I state in the title that freedom from fossil fuels could be accomplished in ten years. All we have to do to achieve that goal is quit spending our efforts on blaming everyone and everything we disagree with, while condemning things as they are. Then spend our energies on developing and promoting these new concepts and products. I think we have far to much use of problems as political battering rams against opponents and far too little effort at finding and implementing viable solutions. Most everyone wants a single simple answer, and by the same token many blame one or a few situations or efforts as the sole or certainly the overwhelming villain in the case. I’d like to use the current media hot button “global warming” to illustrate.

Global warming has become such a popular catch phrase it is being used as a verbal club in condemnation of many things. It has become the subject of much TV humor. Late night talk shows on TV seldom miss a chance to tell a global warming joke. Passions run high on the subject. So high that global warming has taken on almost the trappings of a religion. Certainly it rouses almost religious fervor in its believers. The truth, degree, causative factors, and ultimate results of global warming if indeed it is real, are completely lost in the passionate rhetoric from adherents and nay sayers alike.

The truth is that climate and climate change are very complex, far more complex than our best computer simulations can handle. As a result, we have great difficulty in predicting the path of a single hurricane with much accuracy. While we are getting better at it each year as more sophisticated simulations are developed we still have a long way to go before we can have as much as 80% accuracy five days ahead. A single hurricane is a far less complex system with far fewer variables than is the climate of the entire world. Change a few variables a very small amount and simulation results can be vastly different.

This is virtually axiomatic in all types of complex systems we could talk about. It is true of global climate, economics, energy, civilizations, nations, you name it—there are many extremely complex systems with almost infinite numbers of variables that are extremely difficult to understand. The question was posed and then somewhat answered in Paul Hanley’s article, “Is the decline of the status of the United States a result of its heavy ecological footprint?” This is a classic example of applying a single causative system as the sole or primary reason for the behavior of an extremely complex system and then applying the same factor to another very different and also complex system. I am not saying it is not a factor, but that to explain it as the primary one is to presume a great deal. It is even possible that this factor is the effect of other factors and not a cause at all. Cause and effect often are confused in this type of situation.

To illustrate my meaning I will use climate again. It is often assumed that rising average air temperatures indicate the planet is warming. Actually, that may not be the case. The entire atmosphere holds only a fraction of the heat that the earth’s liquid and frozen water holds. All of that heat is held in the planet’s very thin surface skin comparable in thickness to paint on the surface of a croquet ball. Movements of ocean currents distribute far more heat energy around the planet than do air currents and thus should be a bigger contributor to climate. Indeed, it is primarily the energy from warm ocean water that powers hurricanes and we are just beginning to understand how the warm surface waters of the Pacific can affect climate over much of the globe. Discovering how changes in our atmosphere affects the oceans—actually the complex exchanges of energy between oceans and atmosphere—is an extremely difficult and complex task. Though there is much we do understand, that understanding is but a tiny portion of what is needed to design competent computer simulations. What we can project from current knowledge is a SWAG (Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess) at best.

Too often adherents to an idea will take a SWAG and run with it as a definite fact. Our media in particular tends to do this particularly if the SWAG happens to promise dire consequences for our nation or the world. Those dire predictions seem to sell newspapers and gain TV viewers. It is well known that bad news sells much better than good news. We all have a tendency to stop and gawk at an accident scene and pictures of all manner of disasters and mayhem bring many viewers to TV. The temptation to sensationalize seems far too great to keep reporters and TV news writers from emphasizing the negative aspect of virtually any situation. With all this sensationalism available it is quite difficult for any calm, objective, broadly based observations or studies to get much exposure.

Often reports of such careful observations are condemned as opposition to an accepted position or known fact. The known fact of global warming is just such a creation and is now accepted by many as axiomatic. Thirty or forty years ago many of these same individuals were treating global cooling as a known fact.

When we learn enough that we are able to predict precisely where a hurricane is going to go and how strong it will become when it is merely a disturbance off the coast of Africa—then we may be able to say whether global warming caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide is a reality with some degree of certainty. Now, no matter how you look at it, to say that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the responsible agent causing global warming in the manner it is being described by so many agenda driven spokespersons is Chicken Little at best.

The same type of observation could be made about Mr. Henley’s report. I am not saying it is wrong, just that it may be an effect, rather than a cause—a symptom rather than a disease. Certainly it is worth consideration as being among countless other factors. It may be a factor, but certainly not necessarily the definitive one. There is probably not a single definitive factor at all, but rather many significant ones. To make comparison of the situation in Rome and in America today requires another stretch of the imagination and denial of countless other factors. The two systems and their complexities have far too many differences for the type of conclusion made to have more than passing interest and value. An interesting thought perhaps, but quite far from proven.

To me the concerns expressed about our lavish lifestyle and fiscal cancer are far more significant than the heavy ecological footprint. The paragraph, "The empire also needed tax gatherers and civil servants. These armies and bureaucrats had to be supported by the empire. Expansion was also necessary to get booty and other forms of wealth, such as gold, to pay for the Roman lifestyle and the costs of expansion itself." is to me a far more significant comparison as it could be said almost verbatim of our present government. I believe Tyler’s observation about democracy cited earlier in this commentary predicts a far more accurate and likely scenario and provides more serious concern than any ecological effects. Unfortunately, it is also a real menace that seems to interest very few Americans and certainly few politicians. Currently, this frightens me far more than any concern about our ecological footprint.